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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 5.2x - 5.8x | 5.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 4.1x - 4.6x | 4.3x |
| Fair Value | R$6.27 - R$7.44 | R$6.86 |
| Upside | 34.0% - 59.0% | 46.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Hulamin Limited | HLM | JSE:HLM |
| Paranapanema S.A. | PMAM3 | BOVESPA:PMAM3 |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional | CSNA3 | BOVESPA:CSNA3 |
| Norsk Hydro ASA | NHYK.F | OTCPK:NHYK.F |
| Usinas Siderúrgicas de Minas Gerais S.A. | USIM3 | BOVESPA:USIM3 |
| Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio | CBAV3 | BOVESPA:CBAV3 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| HLM | PMAM3 | CSNA3 | NHYK.F | USIM3 | CBAV3 | ||
| JSE:HLM | BOVESPA:PMAM3 | BOVESPA:CSNA3 | OTCPK:NHYK.F | BOVESPA:USIM3 | BOVESPA:CBAV3 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 33.3% | NM- | 8.3% | 14.5% | -4.7% | 2.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -0.5% | NM- | -27.4% | 7.8% | -51.6% | -16.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -11.3% | 60.8% | -1.9% | 20.2% | 36.2% | 563.6% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 3.4% | -36.1% | 25.4% | 25.8% | 16.4% | 11.1% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.4% | -63.2% | 18.2% | 24.9% | 6.0% | -6.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 4.0% | -55.1% | 17.6% | 25.7% | 5.4% | 12.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.0% | -45.5% | 18.1% | 26.9% | 6.4% | 16.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.15x | 10.36x | 0.95x | 0.52x | 0.40x | 0.71x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.8x | -22.8x | 5.3x | 1.9x | 6.2x | 4.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 5.0x | -16.8x | 9.4x | 2.4x | 19.1x | 7.4x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -22.8x | 3.8x | 6.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.5x | 17.2x | 30.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.2x | 5.5x | 5.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 1,420 | 1,420 | 1,420 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 7,415 | 7,805 | 8,195 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (3,143) | (3,143) | (3,143) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 4,272 | 4,662 | 5,052 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 651.1 | 651.1 | 651.1 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 6.56 | 7.16 | 7.76 | ||||
| FX Rate: BRL/BRL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.56 | 7.16 | 7.76 | 4.68 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 40.2% | 53.0% | 65.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | HLM | PMAM3 | CSNA3 | NHYK.F | USIM3 | CBAV3 | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,049 | 5,334 | 42,439 | 113,995 | 10,441 | 6,190 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 22 | 36 | 20,702 | 21,888 | 6,556 | 858 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 5 | 26 | 5,971 | 23,691 | 961 | 270 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,371) | (5,237) | (54,120) | (37,171) | (8,644) | (4,043) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (3,176) | (6,808) | (2,839) | (227) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 705 | 159 | 11,815 | 115,595 | 6,475 | 3,047 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 313.2 | 75.4 | 1,326.1 | 1,974.9 | 1,230.9 | 651.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2.25 | 2.11 | 8.91 | 58.53 | 5.26 | 4.68 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10.18 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2.25 | 2.11 | 8.91 | 5.75 | 5.26 | 4.68 | |
| Trading Currency | ZAR | BRL | BRL | USD | BRL | BRL | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 10.18 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |