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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 13.8% - 12.8% | 13.3% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.5x - 0.6x | 0.5x |
Fair Value | R$4.50 - R$6.42 | R$5.45 |
Upside | 10.9% - 58.2% | 34.2% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(BRL in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Feb-24 | Feb-25 | Feb-26 | Feb-27 | Feb-28 | Feb-29 |
Revenue | 11,250 | 12,212 | 12,632 | 13,469 | 13,940 | 14,219 |
% Growth | 10.2% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 830 | 911 | 928 | 1,021 | 1,057 | 1,078 |
% of Revenue | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(BRL in millions) | Feb-25 | Feb-26 | Feb-27 | Feb-28 | Feb-29 | |
EBITDA | 911 | 928 | 1,021 | 1,057 | 1,078 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (272) | (279) | (296) | (254) | (243) | |
EBIT | 639 | 649 | 725 | 803 | 835 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (121) | (123) | (138) | (153) | (159) | |
NOPAT | 513 | 517 | 526 | 587 | 650 | 676 |
Capital Expenditures | (290) | (285) | (408) | (247) | (299) | (311) |
NWC Investment | (276) | (254) | (111) | (221) | (125) | (74) |
(+) D&A | 197 | 272 | 279 | 296 | 254 | 243 |
Free Cash Flow | 143 | 250 | 286 | 415 | 481 | 535 |
% Growth | 74% | 15% | 45% | 16% | 11% |