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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 13.8% - 12.8% | 13.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 7.2x - 9.2x | 8.2x |
Fair Value | R$8.13 - R$11.09 | R$9.56 |
Upside | 58.3% - 115.8% | 86.0% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(BRL in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Feb-25 | Feb-26 | Feb-27 | Feb-28 | Feb-29 | Feb-30 | Feb-31 | Feb-32 | Feb-33 | Feb-34 | Feb-35 |
Revenue | 12,263 | 12,628 | 13,299 | 12,859 | 12,859 | 12,859 | 12,859 | 12,859 | 12,859 | 12,859 | 12,859 |
% Growth | 9.0% | 3.0% | 5.3% | -3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EBITDA | 794 | 922 | 1,027 | 1,094 | 1,094 | 1,094 | 1,094 | 1,094 | 1,094 | 1,094 | 1,094 |
% of Revenue | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
(BRL in millions) | Feb-26 | Feb-27 | Feb-28 | Feb-29 | Feb-30 | Feb-31 | Feb-32 | Feb-33 | Feb-34 | Feb-35 | |
EBITDA | 922 | 1,027 | 1,094 | 1,094 | 1,094 | 1,094 | 1,094 | 1,094 | 1,094 | 1,094 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (283) | (302) | (288) | (256) | (222) | (222) | (222) | (222) | (222) | (222) | |
EBIT | 639 | 725 | 806 | 838 | 872 | 872 | 872 | 872 | 872 | 872 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (121) | (138) | (153) | (159) | (166) | (166) | (166) | (166) | (166) | (166) | |
NOPAT | 487 | 518 | 587 | 653 | 679 | 706 | 706 | 706 | 706 | 706 | 706 |
Capital Expenditures | (335) | (290) | (245) | (309) | (321) | (334) | (321) | (321) | (321) | (321) | (321) |
NWC Investment | (258) | (93) | (171) | 112 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 193 | 283 | 302 | 288 | 256 | 222 | 222 | 222 | 222 | 222 | 222 |
Free Cash Flow | 87 | 418 | 473 | 744 | 614 | 594 | 607 | 607 | 607 | 607 | 607 |
% Growth | 379% | 13% | 57% | -17% | -3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |