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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 8.5% - 7.5% | 8.0% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 3.0% - 4.0% | 3.5% |
| Fair Value | Mex$ 204.06 - Mex$ 226.90 | Mex$ 213.09 |
| Upside | 69.4% - 88.4% | 76.9% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (ZAR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 35,554 | 33,225 | 32,374 | 33,128 | 6,135 | 4,543 | 4,543 | 4,543 | 4,543 | 4,543 | 4,543 | |
| % Growth | 16.1% | -6.6% | -2.6% | 2.3% | -81.5% | -25.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| EBITDA | 5,983 | 6,577 | 5,915 | 5,690 | 1,054 | 780 | 780 | 780 | 780 | 780 | 780 | |
| % of Revenue | 16.8% | 19.8% | 18.3% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.2% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (ZAR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 6,577 | 5,915 | 5,690 | 1,054 | 780 | 780 | 780 | 780 | 780 | 780 | 780 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 556 | 428 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (1,805) | (2,611) | (2,653) | (491) | (364) | (364) | (364) | (364) | (364) | (364) | (190) | |
| EBIT | 4,772 | 3,305 | 3,037 | 1,119 | 845 | 417 | 417 | 417 | 417 | 417 | 590 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (1,050) | (727) | (668) | (246) | (186) | (92) | (92) | (92) | (92) | (92) | (130) | |
| NOPAT | 2,799 | 3,722 | 2,578 | 2,369 | 873 | 659 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 460 |
| Capital Expenditures | (3,333) | (2,635) | (2,477) | (800) | (600) | (200) | (200) | (200) | (200) | (200) | (200) | (200) |
| NWC Investment | (22) | 11 | 4 | (3) | 122 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1) |
| (+) D&A | 2,395 | 1,805 | 2,611 | 2,653 | 491 | 364 | 364 | 364 | 364 | 364 | 364 | 190 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,838 | 2,903 | 2,715 | 4,218 | 886 | 830 | 489 | 489 | 489 | 489 | 489 | 450 |
| % Growth | 58% | -6% | 55% | -79% | -6% | -41% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -8% | |