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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 12.9x - 14.3x | 13.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 9.0x - 9.9x | 9.4x |
| Fair Value | Mex$ 1,188 - Mex$ 1,328 | Mex$ 1,258 |
| Upside | -48.5% - -42.4% | -45.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | AQE | DB:AQE |
| The Siam Cement Public Company Limited | TCM1 | DB:TCM1 |
| China National Building Material Company Limited | D1Y | DB:D1Y |
| Breedon Group plc | CQB0 | DB:CQB0 |
| Heidelberg Materials AG | HEID | BRSE:HEID |
| Holcim AG | HOLN N | BMV:HOLNN |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| AQE | TCM1 | D1Y | CQB0 | HEID | HOLN N | ||
| DB:AQE | DB:TCM1 | DB:D1Y | DB:CQB0 | BRSE:HEID | BMV:HOLNN | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -26.2% | -34.6% | -26.8% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 6.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -38.4% | -59.1% | -40.1% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 4.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -28.0% | -67.8% | -37.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 1.9% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 17.4% | 5.6% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 13.9% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 8.4% | 2.3% | 6.0% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 15.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 9.4% | 0.7% | 4.3% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 16.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.4% | 0.7% | 4.3% | 9.9% | 13.5% | 16.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.82x | 0.77x | 1.27x | 1.24x | 1.51x | 2.19x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.4x | 12.9x | 10.5x | 7.5x | 8.2x | 9.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 8.8x | 108.6x | 29.2x | 12.6x | 11.2x | 13.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 8.8x | 12.6x | 108.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 10.6x | 12.2x | 14.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 12.9x | 13.6x | 14.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 4,338 | 4,338 | 4,338 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 56,124 | 59,077 | 62,031 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (5,690) | (5,690) | (5,690) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 50,434 | 53,387 | 56,341 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 933.9 | 933.9 | 933.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 54.00 | 57.17 | 60.33 | ||||
| FX Rate: CHF/MXN | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1,252.76 | 1,326.14 | 1,399.51 | 2,306.54 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -45.7% | -42.5% | -39.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AQE | TCM1 | D1Y | CQB0 | HEID | HOLN N | |
| Enterprise Value | 85,304 | 393,855 | 229,100 | 1,939 | 31,809 | 98,546 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 70,739 | 51,895 | 32,959 | 29 | 3,233 | 5,352 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 20,425 | 156,206 | 37,136 | 15 | 2,616 | 3,530 | |
| (-) Debt | (30,243) | (348,435) | (194,477) | (434) | (8,558) | (13,856) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (12,437) | (66,893) | (75,084) | (0) | (1,179) | (716) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 133,788 | 186,629 | 29,633 | 1,549 | 27,921 | 92,856 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 6,694.2 | 1,200.0 | 8,434.8 | 345.8 | 178.4 | 933.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 19.99 | 155.52 | 3.51 | 4.48 | 156.48 | 99.43 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 7.87 | 36.85 | 7.87 | 0.84 | 1.05 | 0.04 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 2.54 | 4.22 | 0.45 | 5.35 | 149.62 | 2,306.54 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | CHF | MXN | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 7.87 | 36.85 | 7.87 | 0.84 | 1.05 | 0.04 | |