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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 4.6x - 5.0x | 4.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.4x - 3.7x | 3.6x |
| Fair Value | €30.85 - €32.22 | €31.54 |
| Upside | 6.2% - 10.9% | 8.5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Deutsche Post AG | DHL | DB:DHL |
| ID Logistics Group SA | IDL | ENXTPA:IDL |
| STEF SA | STF | ENXTPA:STF |
| Müller - Die lila Logistik SE | MLL | DB:MLL |
| A.L.A. società per azioni | 8WD | DB:8WD |
| Logista Integral, S.A. | LOG | BME:LOG |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| DHL | IDL | STF | MLL | 8WD | LOG | ||
| DB:DHL | ENXTPA:IDL | ENXTPA:STF | DB:MLL | DB:8WD | BME:LOG | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 11.8% | 21.2% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 25.3% | 8.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -6.8% | 24.2% | 10.4% | 26.1% | 37.9% | 9.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 33.1% | 15.4% | 12.0% | -4.6% | 39.4% | 0.7% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.8% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 10.6% | 3.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 11.0% | 3.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 8.9% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 12.2% | 3.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.1% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.79x | 1.22x | 0.62x | 0.56x | 1.26x | 0.11x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.7x | 19.1x | 7.5x | 9.1x | 10.3x | 3.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 12.5x | 28.3x | 13.5x | 20.6x | 11.9x | 4.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.5x | 9.1x | 19.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -0.9x | 0.5x | 3.7x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.6x | 4.8x | 5.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 409 | 409 | 409 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,868 | 1,966 | 2,064 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 2,347 | 2,347 | 2,347 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 4,215 | 4,313 | 4,411 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 132.0 | 132.0 | 132.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 31.92 | 32.67 | 33.41 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 31.92 | 32.67 | 33.41 | 29.06 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 9.8% | 12.4% | 15.0% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | DHL | IDL | STF | MLL | 8WD | LOG | |
| Enterprise Value | 67,098 | 3,995 | 2,984 | 135 | 365 | 1,490 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 3,766 | 317 | 85 | 8 | 31 | 2,368 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 774 | 3 | 112 | 0 | 0 | 43 | |
| (-) Debt | (25,881) | (1,451) | (1,425) | (104) | (81) | (64) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (438) | (2) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 45,319 | 2,863 | 1,755 | 39 | 315 | 3,837 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,130.1 | 6.5 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 132.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 40.10 | 438.00 | 140.00 | 4.90 | 34.90 | 29.06 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 40.10 | 438.00 | 140.00 | 4.90 | 34.90 | 29.06 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |