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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 13.0% - 12.0% | 12.5% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.4x - 0.5x | 0.5x |
Fair Value | €14.54 - €17.39 | €15.94 |
Upside | 3.8% - 24.2% | 13.8% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(EUR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 15,289 | 15,093 | 15,960 | 17,022 | 18,176 | 18,812 |
% Growth | -4.3% | -1.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 3.5% |
EBITDA | 1,109 | 1,626 | 1,829 | 1,986 | 2,302 | 2,383 |
% of Revenue | 7.3% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 12.7% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(EUR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 1,626 | 1,829 | 1,986 | 2,302 | 2,383 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (679) | (699) | (736) | (786) | (813) | |
EBIT | 947 | 1,130 | 1,250 | 1,516 | 1,570 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (265) | (316) | (350) | (425) | (439) | |
NOPAT | 564 | 682 | 814 | 900 | 1,092 | 1,130 |
Capital Expenditures | (939) | (913) | (957) | (1,005) | (1,179) | (1,238) |
NWC Investment | 117 | 33 | (147) | (180) | (196) | (108) |
(+) D&A | 326 | 679 | 699 | 736 | 786 | 813 |
Free Cash Flow | 68 | 480 | 408 | 451 | 503 | 598 |
% Growth | 610% | -15% | 11% | 12% | 19% |