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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 11.3x - 12.5x | 11.9x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 10.7x - 11.8x | 11.3x |
| Fair Value | €2.25 - €2.69 | €2.47 |
| Upside | 3.3% - 23.5% | 13.4% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Hera S.p.A. | HER | BIT:HER |
| ERG S.p.A. | ERG | BIT:ERG |
| E.ON SE | 1EOAN | BIT:1EOAN |
| Veolia Environnement SA | VIE | ENXTPA:VIE |
| Gelsenwasser AG | WWG | DB:WWG |
| A2A S.p.A. | A2A | BIT:A2A |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| HER | ERG | 1EOAN | VIE | WWG | A2A | ||
| BIT:HER | BIT:ERG | BIT:1EOAN | ENXTPA:VIE | DB:WWG | BIT:A2A | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 9.0% | 4.9% | 39.9% | 16.0% | -2.6% | 13.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 10.5% | 13.1% | 10.0% | 30.0% | -5.5% | 25.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.8% | -24.0% | 161.1% | 6.8% | -44.0% | 5.3% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 5.4% | 30.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 1.3% | 6.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.4% | 40.5% | 1.0% | 6.5% | 1.8% | 6.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 6.4% | 34.8% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 1.4% | 9.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.9% | 31.4% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 1.4% | 9.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.70x | 6.83x | 0.86x | 0.88x | 0.58x | 0.97x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.3x | 10.0x | 6.5x | 7.0x | 20.4x | 6.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 11.7x | 21.7x | 9.0x | 12.5x | 42.9x | 10.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 9.0x | 12.5x | 42.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 8.4x | 13.0x | 16.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 11.3x | 11.9x | 12.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 1,202 | 1,202 | 1,202 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 13,599 | 14,314 | 15,030 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (6,018) | (6,018) | (6,018) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 7,581 | 8,296 | 9,012 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3,131.8 | 3,131.8 | 3,131.8 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2.42 | 2.65 | 2.88 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 2.42 | 2.65 | 2.88 | 2.18 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 11.3% | 21.8% | 32.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | HER | ERG | 1EOAN | VIE | WWG | A2A | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,736 | 4,904 | 72,698 | 39,328 | 1,779 | 12,830 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,855 | 0 | 4,668 | 11,764 | 26 | 1,576 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 183 | 49 | 10,592 | 3,006 | 727 | 25 | |
| (-) Debt | (5,986) | (2,088) | (40,100) | (29,282) | (417) | (7,057) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (319) | (77) | (6,571) | (2,391) | (1) | (562) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 5,470 | 2,788 | 41,287 | 22,425 | 2,114 | 6,812 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,404.7 | 145.4 | 2,613.1 | 730.4 | 3.4 | 3,131.8 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 3.89 | 19.18 | 15.80 | 30.70 | 615.00 | 2.18 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3.89 | 19.18 | 15.80 | 30.70 | 615.00 | 2.18 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |