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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 3.4x - 3.7x | 3.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 2.5x - 2.8x | 2.6x |
| Fair Value | €23.99 - €26.05 | €25.02 |
| Upside | -9.8% - -2.0% | -5.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Ternium S.A. | T5Z | DB:T5Z |
| Olympic Steel, Inc. | OYS | DB:OYS |
| Fortescue Ltd | FVJ | DB:FVJ |
| Ryerson Holding Corporation | 7RY | DB:7RY |
| Commercial Metals Company | CMS | DB:CMS |
| ArcelorMittal S.A. | MTSE | BATS-CHIXE:MTSE |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| T5Z | OYS | FVJ | 7RY | CMS | MTSE | ||
| DB:T5Z | DB:OYS | DB:FVJ | DB:7RY | DB:CMS | BATS-CHIXE:MTSE | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 4.3% | 17.0% | 12.2% | -14.8% | 16.6% | 7.3% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -31.6% | -26.0% | -13.7% | -38.9% | 6.2% | -33.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -56.8% | -28.7% | -26.8% | -61.7% | -38.5% | 0.9% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 22.6% | 4.9% | 62.2% | 6.2% | 13.3% | 13.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 24.7% | 5.1% | 56.9% | 5.7% | 15.8% | 8.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 10.6% | 4.0% | 57.7% | 2.4% | 11.5% | 9.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 10.6% | 4.0% | 50.3% | 2.4% | 9.5% | 9.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.43x | 0.33x | 1.89x | 0.33x | 0.67x | 0.27x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.0x | 8.1x | 3.8x | 13.6x | 7.0x | 3.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 6.3x | 13.2x | 5.2x | 43.8x | 10.1x | 5.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.8x | 7.0x | 13.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 1.0x | 2.6x | 9.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.4x | 3.5x | 3.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 5,629 | 5,629 | 5,629 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 18,884 | 19,877 | 20,871 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 4,493 | 4,493 | 4,493 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 23,377 | 24,370 | 25,364 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 880.4 | 880.4 | 880.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 26.55 | 27.68 | 28.81 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/EUR | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 23.37 | 24.36 | 25.36 | 26.59 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -12.1% | -8.4% | -4.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | T5Z | OYS | FVJ | 7RY | CMS | MTSE | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,569 | 635 | 32,090 | 1,516 | 5,162 | 22,105 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 3,851 | 12 | 3,409 | 28 | 758 | 6,400 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 491 | 0 | 375 | 0 | 0 | 11,719 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,440) | (313) | (5,439) | (851) | (1,195) | (11,563) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (4,163) | 0 | 27 | (9) | (0) | (2,063) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 5,309 | 335 | 30,462 | 684 | 4,725 | 26,598 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 196.3 | 11.2 | 3,074.5 | 31.9 | 113.0 | 880.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 27.04 | 30.00 | 9.91 | 21.47 | 41.81 | 30.21 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 23.80 | 26.40 | 8.72 | 18.90 | 36.80 | 26.59 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.14 | |