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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate | 12.8% - 11.8% | 12.3% |
| Perpetuity Growth Rate | 0.0% - 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Fair Value | kr125.55 - kr151.43 | kr135.63 |
| Upside | 73.1% - 108.7% | 87.0% |
| Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||||||||
| (SEK in millions) | Input Projections | |||||||||||
| Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | |
| Revenue | 136,150 | 133,276 | 139,739 | 143,873 | 154,839 | 158,379 | 161,547 | 164,778 | 168,073 | 171,435 | 174,863 | |
| % Growth | 1.3% | -2.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| EBITDA | 4,962 | 9,798 | 11,431 | 13,282 | 16,311 | 17,001 | 17,341 | 17,688 | 18,042 | 18,402 | 18,770 | |
| % of Revenue | 3.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.7% | |
| Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||||||||
| (SEK in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | Terminal | |
| EBITDA | 9,798 | 11,431 | 13,282 | 16,311 | 17,001 | 17,341 | 17,688 | 18,042 | 18,402 | 18,770 | 18,770 | |
| Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| D&A | (5,739) | (5,924) | (6,696) | (7,185) | (7,591) | (7,743) | (7,898) | (8,056) | (8,217) | (8,381) | (6,780) | |
| EBIT | 4,059 | 5,507 | 6,586 | 9,126 | 9,410 | 9,598 | 9,790 | 9,986 | 10,186 | 10,389 | 11,990 | |
| Pro forma Taxes | (934) | (1,267) | (1,515) | (2,099) | (2,164) | (2,208) | (2,252) | (2,297) | (2,343) | (2,390) | (2,758) | |
| NOPAT | 752 | 3,125 | 4,240 | 5,071 | 7,027 | 7,246 | 7,391 | 7,538 | 7,689 | 7,843 | 8,000 | 9,232 |
| Capital Expenditures | (3,449) | (4,550) | (5,046) | (5,342) | (7,660) | (7,850) | (6,951) | (7,090) | (7,231) | (7,090) | (7,137) | (7,137) |
| NWC Investment | 138 | (233) | 525 | 336 | 891 | 288 | 257 | 263 | 268 | 273 | 279 | 0 |
| (+) D&A | 3,985 | 5,739 | 5,924 | 6,696 | 7,185 | 7,591 | 7,743 | 7,898 | 8,056 | 8,217 | 8,381 | 6,780 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,426 | 4,081 | 5,644 | 6,762 | 7,443 | 7,274 | 8,440 | 8,609 | 8,781 | 9,242 | 9,522 | 8,876 |
| % Growth | 186% | 38% | 20% | 10% | -2% | 16% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 3% | -7% | |