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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9.6x - 10.7x | 10.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.4x - 8.2x | 7.8x |
| Fair Value | £1.54 - £1.76 | £1.65 |
| Upside | -8.4% - 4.3% | -2.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Heineken Holding N.V. | 0NBD | LSE:0NBD |
| Pernod Ricard SA | 0HAT | LSE:0HAT |
| Olvi Oyj | 0FHS | LSE:0FHS |
| Carlsberg A/S | 0AI3 | LSE:0AI3 |
| Diageo plc | DGE | LSE:DGE |
| C&C Group plc | CCRL | BATS-CHIXE:CCRL |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 0NBD | 0HAT | 0FHS | 0AI3 | DGE | CCRL | ||
| LSE:0NBD | LSE:0HAT | LSE:0FHS | LSE:0AI3 | LSE:DGE | BATS-CHIXE:CCRL | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 1.9% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 0.4% | 2.6% | -8.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 6.7% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 6.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.6% | -6.7% | 16.5% | 3.4% | -3.1% | 21.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 19.7% | 29.8% | 17.4% | 21.1% | 33.2% | 3.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 18.3% | 30.9% | 12.5% | 18.9% | 33.1% | 4.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 19.3% | 29.5% | 16.0% | 19.2% | 32.1% | 5.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 19.3% | 29.1% | 16.2% | 19.2% | 31.1% | 5.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.40x | 3.22x | 1.06x | 1.95x | 3.76x | 0.56x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.3x | 11.1x | 6.5x | 10.2x | 12.1x | 10.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.7x | 12.3x | 8.4x | 13.7x | 13.1x | 12.4x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.5x | 10.2x | 12.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.7x | 10.6x | 156.1x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.6x | 10.2x | 10.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 89 | 89 | 89 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 862 | 907 | 953 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (212) | (212) | (212) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 651 | 696 | 741 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 371.6 | 371.6 | 371.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 1.75 | 1.87 | 1.99 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/GBP | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.52 | 1.62 | 1.73 | 1.69 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -10.0% | -3.7% | 2.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 0NBD | 0HAT | 0FHS | 0AI3 | DGE | CCRL | |
| Enterprise Value | 41,751 | 35,927 | 673 | 128,497 | 74,047 | 935 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,350 | 1,916 | 35 | 11,601 | 1,656 | 144 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 3,681 | 649 | 2 | 4,674 | 5,178 | 2 | |
| (-) Debt | (17,049) | (13,942) | (24) | (38,140) | (22,593) | (357) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (12,558) | (1,089) | (2) | (2,841) | (2,121) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 18,175 | 23,461 | 684 | 103,791 | 56,167 | 723 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 282.2 | 251.6 | 20.7 | 105.1 | 2,222.3 | 371.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 64.40 | 93.24 | 33.05 | 988.00 | 25.27 | 1.95 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.34 | 1.15 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 64.40 | 93.24 | 33.05 | 988.00 | 18.88 | 1.69 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | DKK | GBP | GBP | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.34 | 1.15 | |