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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 9.8% - 8.8% | 9.3% |
Perpetuity Growth Rate | 4.8% - 5.8% | 5.3% |
Fair Value | ARS 7,501 - ARS 12,082 | ARS 9,219 |
Upside | -18.6% - 31.2% | 0.1% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Jan-25 | Jan-26 | Jan-27 | Jan-28 | Jan-29 | Jan-30 | |
Revenue | 3,626 | 4,515 | 5,532 | 6,817 | 8,435 | 10,173 | |
% Growth | 29.2% | 24.5% | 22.5% | 23.2% | 23.7% | 20.6% | |
EBITDA | -1,311 | 555 | 768 | 1,054 | 1,465 | 3,345 | |
% of Revenue | -36.2% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 15.5% | 17.4% | 32.9% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||
(USD in millions) | Jan-26 | Jan-27 | Jan-28 | Jan-29 | Jan-30 | Terminal | |
EBITDA | 555 | 768 | 1,054 | 1,465 | 3,345 | 3,345 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (186) | (200) | (158) | (68) | (1,589) | (110) | |
EBIT | 369 | 568 | 896 | 1,396 | 1,756 | 3,235 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (52) | (80) | (125) | (195) | (246) | (453) | |
NOPAT | (1,236) | 317 | 488 | 771 | 1,201 | 1,510 | 2,782 |
Capital Expenditures | (46) | (80) | (66) | (88) | (96) | (116) | (116) |
NWC Investment | 448 | 485 | 555 | 702 | 884 | 949 | 292 |
(+) D&A | 126 | 186 | 200 | 158 | 68 | 1,589 | 110 |
Free Cash Flow | (708) | 909 | 1,178 | 1,542 | 2,057 | 3,933 | 3,068 |
% Growth | NM | 30% | 31% | 33% | 91% | -22% |