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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 2.1x - 2.3x | 2.2x |
Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1.8x - 2.0x | 1.9x |
Fair Value | ARS 274.65 - ARS 308.97 | ARS 291.81 |
Upside | -27.6% - -18.6% | -23.1% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
---|---|---|
The AES Corporation | A1ES34 | BOVESPA:A1ES34 |
Central Puerto S.A. | CEPU | BASE:CEPU |
Consus Enerji Isletmeciligi ve Hizmetleri A.S. | CONSE | IBSE:CONSE |
Colbún S.A. | COLBUN | SNSE:COLBUN |
Akenerji Elektrik Üretim A.S. | AKENR | IBSE:AKENR |
Central Costanera S.A. | CECO2 | BASE:CECO2 |
Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
A1ES34 | CEPU | CONSE | COLBUN | AKENR | CECO2 | |||
BOVESPA:A1ES34 | BASE:CEPU | IBSE:CONSE | SNSE:COLBUN | IBSE:AKENR | BASE:CECO2 | |||
Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
5Y CAGR | 3.8% | 72.1% | NM- | 1.2% | 69.5% | 44.7% | ||
3Y CAGR | 3.3% | 87.9% | 54.4% | 3.1% | 86.7% | 75.3% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | -3.2% | -1.3% | -20.3% | -12.3% | -22.5% | 6.7% | ||
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 20.5% | 35.7% | 4.7% | 24.7% | 6.1% | -6.8% | ||
Prior Fiscal Year | 17.7% | 21.5% | -20.0% | 22.8% | 5.6% | -60.2% | ||
Latest Fiscal Year | 16.4% | 25.8% | 4.2% | 22.3% | -0.9% | 3.7% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | 15.5% | 25.5% | 5.5% | 23.5% | -0.3% | 15.0% | ||
Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 3.54x | 2.97x | 3.29x | 2.55x | 1.13x | 2.63x | ||
EV / LTM EBIT | 22.8x | 11.6x | 59.8x | 10.9x | -412.8x | 17.6x | ||
Price / LTM Sales | 0.79x | 2.96x | 1.83x | 1.63x | 0.36x | 2.32x | ||
Low | Mid | High | ||||||
Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 1.13x | 2.97x | 3.54x | |||||
Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.80x | 2.49x | 3.16x | |||||
Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 2.12x | 2.23x | 2.34x | |||||
(x) LTM Revenue | 116,196 | 116,196 | 116,196 | |||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 245,866 | 258,806 | 271,746 | |||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (36,104) | (36,104) | (36,104) | |||||
(=) Equity Value | 209,761 | 222,702 | 235,642 | |||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 702.0 | 702.0 | 702.0 | |||||
Implied Value Range | 298.81 | 317.24 | 335.68 | |||||
FX Rate: ARS/ARS | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 298.81 | 317.24 | 335.68 | 379.50 | ||||
Upside / (Downside) | -21.3% | -16.4% | -11.5% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | A1ES34 | CEPU | CONSE | COLBUN | AKENR | CECO2 | |
Enterprise Value | 43,178 | 2,199,998 | 4,711 | 4,137 | 26,779 | 302,509 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,817 | 268,222 | 25 | 775 | 1,873 | 194 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 1,129 | 188,124 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 403 | |
(-) Debt | (31,181) | (410,475) | (2,091) | (2,285) | (20,078) | (36,702) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (5,156) | (52,047) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 9,787 | 2,193,823 | 2,645 | 2,627 | 8,575 | 266,405 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 711.9 | 1,502.6 | 771.0 | 17,536.2 | 729.2 | 702.0 | |
Implied Stock Price | 13.75 | 1,460.00 | 3.43 | 0.15 | 11.76 | 379.50 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.18 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 76.50 | 1,460.00 | 3.43 | 143.00 | 11.76 | 379.50 | |
Trading Currency | BRL | ARS | TRY | CLP | TRY | ARS | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.18 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |