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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 11.0% - 10.0% | 10.5% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 0.4x - 0.4x | 0.4x |
Fair Value | A$1.18 - A$1.81 | A$1.48 |
Upside | -20.7% - 21.2% | -0.4% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(AUD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 30,142 | 30,896 | 31,391 | 32,155 | 32,936 | 30,267 | 30,267 | 30,267 | 30,267 | 30,267 | 30,267 |
% Growth | 12.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | -8.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
EBITDA | 577 | 730 | 930 | 1,040 | 1,299 | 1,344 | 1,344 | 1,344 | 1,344 | 1,344 | 1,344 |
% of Revenue | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
EBITDA | 730 | 930 | 1,040 | 1,299 | 1,344 | 1,344 | 1,344 | 1,344 | 1,344 | 1,344 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (262) | (273) | (291) | (316) | (343) | (343) | (343) | (343) | (343) | (343) | |
EBIT | 468 | 657 | 749 | 983 | 1,001 | 1,001 | 1,001 | 1,001 | 1,001 | 1,001 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (141) | (197) | (225) | (295) | (300) | (300) | (300) | (300) | (300) | (300) | |
NOPAT | 243 | 328 | 460 | 524 | 688 | 701 | 701 | 701 | 701 | 701 | 701 |
Capital Expenditures | (588) | (501) | (403) | (400) | (395) | (486) | (427) | (427) | (427) | (427) | (427) |
NWC Investment | 11 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | (9) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
(+) D&A | 230 | 262 | 273 | 291 | 316 | 343 | 343 | 343 | 343 | 343 | 343 |
Free Cash Flow | (104) | 91 | 331 | 418 | 612 | 549 | 617 | 617 | 617 | 617 | 617 |
% Growth | 264% | 26% | 46% | -10% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |