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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 11.1x - 12.3x | 11.7x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 4.9x - 5.4x | 5.2x |
| Fair Value | A$0.66 - A$0.73 | A$0.70 |
| Upside | -18.1% - -9.2% | -13.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| South32 Limited | S32 | ASX:S32 |
| IGO Limited | IGO | ASX:IGO |
| Sandfire Resources Limited | SFR | ASX:SFR |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | FCX_KZ | KAS:FCX_KZ |
| Antofagasta plc | ANFG.F | OTCPK:ANFG.F |
| Nickel Industries Limited | NIC | ASX:NIC |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| S32 | IGO | SFR | FCX_KZ | ANFG.F | NIC | ||
| ASX:S32 | ASX:IGO | ASX:SFR | KAS:FCX_KZ | OTCPK:ANFG.F | ASX:NIC | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -43.6% | NM- | -14.3% | 62.1% | 3.6% | -1.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -58.8% | NM- | -37.4% | -6.1% | -22.1% | -8.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 350.9% | 40.0% | 732.9% | -0.8% | -8.4% | -50.4% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 13.8% | -19.0% | 16.1% | 28.1% | 30.9% | 21.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.9% | -74.1% | -1.4% | 27.3% | 27.9% | 16.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 1.0% | -70.4% | 5.3% | 27.3% | 24.5% | 8.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.8% | -92.1% | 14.8% | 26.8% | 24.5% | 8.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.40x | 3.14x | 3.45x | 3.12x | 4.69x | 1.40x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 8.4x | -10.0x | 8.3x | 8.4x | 10.3x | 8.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 15.9x | -3.4x | 23.3x | 11.5x | 19.2x | 16.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -3.4x | 15.9x | 23.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 8.6x | 11.8x | 16.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 11.1x | 11.7x | 12.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 151 | 151 | 151 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,680 | 1,768 | 1,856 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (46) | (46) | (46) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,634 | 1,722 | 1,811 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,340.9 | 4,340.9 | 4,340.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.38 | 0.40 | 0.42 | ||||
| FX Rate: USD/AUD | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.63 | 0.81 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -28.8% | -25.0% | -21.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | S32 | IGO | SFR | FCX_KZ | ANFG.F | NIC | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,601 | 2,157 | 3,689 | 85,487 | 30,192 | 2,342 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,600 | 291 | 196 | 4,490 | 4,316 | 211 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 662 | 1,646 | 2 | 0 | 1,788 | 1,230 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,647) | (43) | (502) | (9,251) | (5,945) | (1,055) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (13) | 0 | 6 | (11,788) | (3,492) | (432) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 9,203 | 4,051 | 3,391 | 68,938 | 26,859 | 2,297 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,488.4 | 755.8 | 459.1 | 1,436.2 | 985.9 | 4,340.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 2.05 | 5.36 | 7.39 | 48.00 | 27.24 | 0.53 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.66 | 1.00 | 0.66 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.66 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3.12 | 5.36 | 11.24 | 48.00 | 27.24 | 0.81 | |
| Trading Currency | AUD | AUD | AUD | USD | USD | AUD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.66 | 1.00 | 0.66 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.66 | |