Metals X Ltd

ASX:MLX

Australia / Materials / Metals & Mining

Overview

Dividends

10Y DCF Growth Exit

Stock Price

0.53 AUD

Fair Value

0.98 AUD

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	10.5% - 9.5%	10.0%
Perpetuity Growth Rate	0.0% - 0.5%	0.0%
Fair Value	A$0.95 - A$1.02	A$0.98
Upside	80.8% - 95.0%	86.1%

3.0%

Revenue 10y CAGR

32.4%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

-1.1%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Gordon Growth Exit

Stock Price

0.53 AUD

Fair Value

0.98 AUD

Upside

86.1%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(AUD in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	219	294	294	294	294	294	294	294	294	294	294
% Growth	42.3%	34.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

EBITDA	115	133	105	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89
% of Revenue	52.7%	45.3%	35.8%	30.3%	30.3%	30.3%	30.3%	30.3%	30.3%	30.3%	30.3%

Supporting Calculations

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(AUD in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34	Terminal

EBITDA		133	105	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89	89
Other Income / (Exp)		0	27	43	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(11)	(11)	(11)	(11)	(11)	(11)	(11)	(11)	(11)	(11)	(26)

EBIT		122	121	121	78	78	78	78	78	78	78	63
Pro forma Taxes		(18)	(18)	(18)	(12)	(12)	(12)	(12)	(12)	(12)	(12)	(9)
NOPAT	78	104	103	103	66	66	66	66	66	66	66	54

Capital Expenditures	(41)	(27)	(27)	(27)	(27)	(27)	(27)	(27)	(27)	(27)	(27)	(27)
NWC Investment	(5)	(5)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
(+) D&A	23	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	26

Free Cash Flow	56	82	87	87	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	52
% Growth		47%	6%	-1%	-42%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%

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Metals X Ltd

ASX:MLX

Australia / Materials / Metals & Mining

10Y DCF Growth Exit