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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 11.0% - 10.0% | 10.5% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 5.0x - 7.0x | 6.0x |
Fair Value | A$5.11 - A$7.21 | A$6.14 |
Upside | 23.6% - 74.5% | 48.6% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(CAD in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Mar-24 | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 |
Revenue | 1,524 | 1,614 | 1,919 | 2,024 | 1,867 | 1,873 |
% Growth | 9.3% | 5.9% | 18.9% | 5.5% | -7.7% | 0.3% |
EBITDA | 535 | 488 | 669 | 833 | 886 | 630 |
% of Revenue | 35.1% | 30.2% | 34.9% | 41.2% | 47.5% | 33.6% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(CAD in millions) | Mar-25 | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | |
EBITDA | 488 | 669 | 833 | 886 | 630 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (142) | (147) | (105) | (150) | (154) | |
EBIT | 346 | 522 | 728 | 736 | 476 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (145) | (219) | (306) | (309) | (200) | |
NOPAT | 248 | 201 | 303 | 422 | 427 | 276 |
Capital Expenditures | (343) | (591) | (298) | (157) | (126) | (146) |
NWC Investment | (24) | (16) | (56) | (19) | 29 | (1) |
(+) D&A | 107 | 142 | 147 | 105 | 150 | 154 |
Free Cash Flow | (11) | (265) | 96 | 351 | 480 | 283 |
% Growth | NM | NM | 267% | 37% | -41% |