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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 3.6x - 4.0x | 3.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 2.7x - 2.9x | 2.8x |
| Fair Value | A$0.26 - A$0.29 | A$0.27 |
| Upside | -39.4% - -31.9% | -35.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| IGO Limited | IGO | ASX:IGO |
| AIC Mines Limited | A1M | ASX:A1M |
| Aurelia Metals Limited | AMI | ASX:AMI |
| West African Resources Limited | WAF | ASX:WAF |
| Aeris Resources Limited | AIS | ASX:AIS |
| 29Metals Limited | 29M | ASX:29M |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| IGO | A1M | AMI | WAF | AIS | 29M | ||
| ASX:IGO | ASX:A1M | ASX:AMI | ASX:WAF | ASX:AIS | ASX:29M | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | NM- | 2.3% | NM- | 38.6% | -29.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | -2.0% | -5.5% | -3.4% | 21.0% | -37.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -137.2% | 4.3% | 61.3% | 44.2% | 86.3% | 262.4% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 13.0% | 25.0% | 26.0% | 54.9% | 19.8% | 6.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 6.4% | 28.8% | 21.3% | 48.1% | 15.1% | -31.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | -3.8% | 28.6% | 31.0% | 54.9% | 26.3% | 7.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -3.8% | 28.6% | 31.0% | 58.0% | 26.3% | 19.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 3.50x | 1.39x | 0.96x | 4.21x | 0.80x | 1.11x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | -92.3x | 4.8x | 3.1x | 7.3x | 3.1x | 5.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | -5.4x | 16.5x | 4.7x | 8.5x | 6.8x | -83.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -92.3x | 3.1x | 7.3x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -4.7x | 5.5x | 25.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.6x | 3.8x | 4.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 112 | 112 | 112 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 410 | 431 | 453 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (61) | (61) | (61) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 349 | 370 | 392 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,371.3 | 1,371.3 | 1,371.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.25 | 0.27 | 0.29 | ||||
| FX Rate: AUD/AUD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.25 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.43 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -40.2% | -36.5% | -32.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | IGO | A1M | AMI | WAF | AIS | 29M | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,846 | 263 | 322 | 3,633 | 464 | 644 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 344 | 90 | 110 | 279 | 29 | 187 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,599 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (31) | (45) | (9) | (431) | (55) | (248) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | (13) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,757 | 307 | 423 | 3,469 | 437 | 583 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 755.9 | 797.6 | 1,692.6 | 1,141.1 | 971.4 | 1,371.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 4.97 | 0.39 | 0.25 | 3.04 | 0.45 | 0.43 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 4.97 | 0.39 | 0.25 | 3.04 | 0.45 | 0.43 | |
| Trading Currency | AUD | AUD | AUD | AUD | AUD | AUD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |