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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 20.2x - 22.3x | 21.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 12.7x - 14.0x | 13.3x |
| Fair Value | £11.49 - £12.71 | £12.10 |
| Upside | -26.0% - -18.1% | -22.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| BAE Systems plc | BA. | LSE:BA. |
| Chemring Group PLC | CHG | LSE:CHG |
| QinetiQ Group plc | QQ. | LSE:QQ. |
| Rheinmetall AG | 0NI1 | LSE:0NI1 |
| Leonardo S.p.a. | 0ONG | LSE:0ONG |
| Cohort plc | CHRT | AIM:CHRT |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| BA. | CHG | QQ. | 0NI1 | 0ONG | CHRT | ||
| LSE:BA. | LSE:CHG | LSE:QQ. | LSE:0NI1 | LSE:0ONG | AIM:CHRT | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 8.5% | 13.7% | 4.1% | 23.5% | 3.4% | 17.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 10.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 31.5% | 11.1% | 36.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.7% | -6.3% | -26.8% | 67.6% | 24.6% | 24.1% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.6% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 8.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 10.2% | 15.4% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 7.1% | 10.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 9.4% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 14.6% | 7.9% | 9.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.4% | 13.1% | 8.2% | 14.2% | 7.8% | 9.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.44x | 3.10x | 1.48x | 8.12x | 1.74x | 2.63x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 19.7x | 17.7x | 11.8x | 46.3x | 17.0x | 21.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 26.0x | 23.7x | 18.1x | 57.4x | 22.3x | 27.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 18.1x | 23.7x | 57.4x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 13.5x | 26.4x | 27.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 20.2x | 21.2x | 22.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 26 | 26 | 26 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 526 | 554 | 582 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (6) | (6) | (6) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 521 | 548 | 576 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 45.3 | 45.3 | 45.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 11.48 | 12.10 | 12.71 | ||||
| FX Rate: GBP/GBP | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 11.48 | 12.10 | 12.71 | 15.52 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -26.0% | -22.1% | -18.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | BA. | CHG | QQ. | 0NI1 | 0ONG | CHRT | |
| Enterprise Value | 64,207 | 1,612 | 2,865 | 85,136 | 31,731 | 709 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 3,427 | 23 | 291 | 1,083 | 1,869 | 75 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 849 | 6 | 2 | 328 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (10,316) | (116) | (432) | (1,704) | (4,206) | (79) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (161) | 0 | 0 | (462) | (1,172) | (1) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 58,006 | 1,524 | 2,726 | 84,381 | 28,222 | 704 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,990.0 | 272.2 | 541.4 | 45.8 | 576.4 | 45.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 19.40 | 5.60 | 5.04 | 1,843.64 | 48.96 | 15.52 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 19.40 | 5.60 | 5.04 | 1,843.64 | 48.96 | 15.52 | |
| Trading Currency | GBP | GBP | GBP | EUR | EUR | GBP | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |